As global demand for carbon credits continues to expand, African countries have a significant opportunity to position themselves as major participants in voluntary carbon markets, provided they can strike the right balance between market integrity, community benefit and practical regulation.

This was one of the key messages emerging from a Creamer Media webinar hosted in partnership with the Sustainability and ESG Africa Conference on June 11, where industry experts discussed the future of voluntary carbon markets on the continent.

Opening the discussion, Sustainability and ESG Africa Conference director Wendy Poulton noted that voluntary carbon markets are attracting increasing international attention, with the market estimated at $2.7-billion last year and forecasts suggesting it could reach $45-billion by 2034.

However, concerns remain around project quality, additionality, double counting and the role of offsets in broader decarbonisation strategies.

Panellists also agreed that carbon credits should not be viewed as a substitute for emissions reductions but rather as one component of a broader climate strategy.

Voluntary coalition National Business Initiative head of environment Alex McNamara stressed that companies should first focus on understanding their carbon footprint, governance structures and mitigation opportunities before considering participation in carbon markets.

“Carbon markets are part of a basket of opportunities,” he said, emphasising that organisations should first evaluate energy efficiency measures, renewable-energy investments and other emissions reduction options before turning to offsets.

Carbon credits, he added, can play a useful role in reducing carbon tax liabilities, supporting community development initiatives and strengthening a company’s social licence to operate.

Similarly, climate change advisory Carbon Trust Africa associate director Jarredine Morris emphasised that offsets should be a “complementary tool and not a substitute for decarbonisation”.

She said carbon credits should form part of credible net-zero strategies and only be used after organisations have prioritised direct emissions reductions.

“What we found sometimes is that organisations have thought that an offset or credit might be a more cost-effective way of dealing with their emissions rather than abatement technologies,” Morris explained. “Actually, when you start to dig into the details, in some cases it’s more effective to invest in strong decarbonisation technologies for your operations.”

Africa's Untapped Potential

While Africa possesses some of the world's most significant natural carbon sinks and biodiversity assets, the continent remains underrepresented in global carbon markets.

Consulting firm Regent Evolution partner Brett Stacey noted that of about 11 000 registered carbon projects globally, 2 000 are located in Africa, with roughly half concentrated in East Africa.

He argued that existing international standards administered by organisations such as Gold Standard and Verra often impose lengthy approval processes and high upfront costs that make it difficult for smaller African projects to become viable.

“The benefit for Africa is that we need to start setting up our own regulation,” Stacey said. “We need to start writing our own methodologies, shortening the time from start of a project to when the credits are issued, and they must be going onto local registries that all talk to each other.”

According to Stacey, Africa has a unique opportunity to establish a more agile market architecture while maintaining credibility through robust third-party verification.

“We have the second biggest rainforest in the world in the DRC and we need to take this market into our own hands rather than be dictated to by Gold Standard and Verra.”

However, Morris cautioned that while localised standards are important, African markets must remain sufficiently aligned with international expectations if they are to attract buyers from Europe and other major demand centres.

“The standards aren't only set where the demand is,” she said. “There needs to be more cooperation between where the demand sits and what they would want to see to ensure the standards and our local areas align.”

Community Benefits Drive Premium Credits

A recurring theme throughout the discussion was the importance of ensuring carbon projects generate tangible benefits for local communities.

Stacey argued that meaningful community participation is increasingly becoming a key differentiator for high-value carbon credits.

“The most important thing that drives high-integrity carbon credits and enables higher prices is community involvement,” he said.

Drawing on an example from Zambia, Stacey described a forest conservation initiative where local communities helped prevent mining activities within protected areas and actively participated in monitoring efforts through the deployment of community scouts equipped with electric bicycles and satellite communications. Revenue-sharing agreements and alternative livelihood projects, including beekeeping and small-scale agriculture, formed part of the project's development model.

Morris added that many successful projects in Africa offer benefits extending beyond emissions reductions.

“There’s a lot of opportunity in Africa around biodiversity and building up resilience that plays to Africa’s strengths. They have the potential to really do a lot around livelihoods and development in general for a lot of communities,” she said.  

McNamara suggested that project developers should view carbon initiatives through a broader development lens rather than focusing solely on credit generation.

“If we think about carbon credits not so much as carbon credits but as development – economic development, social development – then all the things we've learned over time apply,” he said. Skills transfer, local maintenance capabilities, institutional strengthening, support for vulnerable groups and gender inclusion should all form part of project design, he maintained.

Building Local Expertise

The panellists also highlighted growing opportunities for African technical advisory firms, project developers and verification specialists.

As countries introduce carbon pricing mechanisms, carbon border adjustment measures and sustainability reporting requirements, demand for expertise in project development, emissions monitoring and verification is expected to increase.

Morris said there is considerable potential to build local capacity in project design and verification, while Stacey suggested African auditing and professional services firms could play a larger role in carbon project certification.

“We’re very innovative, and I think we’ll find ways around it,” Stacey said, referring to Africa’s ability to develop locally appropriate solutions while maintaining market credibility.

Demand Expected to Remain Strong

Responding to questions about whether carbon markets could eventually become obsolete if net-zero goals are achieved, the panellists noted that demand for high-quality credits is likely to persist for decades.

McNamara pointed to hard-to-abate sectors such as aviation, heavy industry and certain manufacturing processes, where residual emissions are expected to remain even under aggressive decarbonisation scenarios.

Referring to modelling work conducted on South Africa’s economy, he said that while around 60% of emissions in sectors such as cement, steel and transport machinery could potentially be addressed through existing technologies and renewable energy, a substantial proportion would still require solutions such as green hydrogen, carbon capture or offsets.

“There will be a significant proportion of global emissions that still remain,” he said. “If we’re going to still produce these kinds of materials, then that will be a huge driver of demand in the future.”

The discussion concluded with broad agreement that voluntary carbon markets are likely to play an increasingly important role in financing climate action and hold significant potential for sustainable development across Africa. However, their success will depend on the continent’s ability to develop credible, transparent and locally relevant systems that deliver measurable environmental outcomes while creating tangible economic and social benefits for communities.